Typhoon (TY) Falcon (Chan-Hom) is currently around 1250 km east of Calayan, Cagayan with winds of 130 kph with 160 kph gusts (PAGASA/11am) . It is still tracking west northwest at 20 kph and expected to be in Northern Taiwan / Southern Okinawa, Japan in 72 hours.
TS Linfa's (local name Egay) outer rain bands is still affecting northwest tip of Luzon.
Southwest monsoon is affecting most parts of Luzon. Expect moderate to sometimes heavy rains over the western part of Luzon including Ilocos region, NCR/Metro Manila, Central and Southern Luzon throughout the day. This may persist until this weekend.
Typhoon Nangka maintained its strength with winds of 180 kph and 250 kph gusts (JMA/Japan). It is forecasted to move west north-west in the next 72 hours before its track shifts northward towards central Japan.TY Nangka is expected to have no direct effect to PH.
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
Latest radar image (approx 11am) shows heavy rainfall in most of NCR and Central Luzon including Pampanga, Bulacan, and northern and southern part of Metro Manila (left image) including Batangas (not shown). Rainfall forecast indicates medium to high chance of rain in Metro Manila for the rest of the day. Right image shows light to moderate rains affecting northwestern part of the Ilocos region and will possibly continue throughout the day.
The enhancement of southwest monsoon due to the location of TS Linfa (Egay), TY Falcon (Chan-Hom) and TY Nangka is expected to bring significant moisture from the West Philippine Sea to western Luzon from today until the weekend.
TY Falcon (Chan-Hom, #9) is still projected to move towards Northern Taiwan / Okinawa, Japan region while TY Nangka (#11) is forecasted to move west north-west in the next 5 days then shift northward towards central Japan. Models and track forecasts of weather agencies are in tight agreement on the tracks of the 3 tropical cyclones.
TY Falcon (Chan-hom) and TY Nangka, although will not make landfall, will enhance the southwest monsoon and bring significant rain across central and western parts of Luzon including NCR from today until the weekend.
Figure below shows recorded rainfall from PAGASA synoptic stations in Metro Manila and Cavite showing significant amount of rainfall - almost 40% of the total monthly normals (1981-2010) for July of each station received from July 4-7.
Latest recorded rainfall from MetroWeather (Manila Observatory) shows heavy rainfall in Pasig and intense rainfall in Quezon City at 8 am.
DAM AND FLOOD ALERT
As of 1130 AM, all major dams are below alert levels.
2-DAY WEATHER FORECAST
Latest forecast shows significant amount of rainfall brought by the moisture inflow from TY falcon(Chan-hom) and southwest monsoon across most parts of Luzon including NCR.
Estimated 24-hr rainfall today for Burgos is 120 mm; Pantabangan is 100 mm and NCR is 70 mm. These rains may trigger flash floods and landslides.
The southwest monsoon is also expected to bring moderate to strong winds and rough sea conditions across the country (PAGASA).
This Weather Advisory/Update is provided by the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (OML Center) in collaboration with Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, an Atmospheric Physicists from UP Diliman and team member of DOST Project NOAH. The Center is a not-for-profit research organization funded by the Lopez Group of Companies to provide science-based information for sound decision-making. To know more about the OML Center, visit www.omlcenter.org. (Story/Photos by: Dr. Gerry Bagtasa and Jane Delfino)