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Weather Advisory #1: TD Julian [5 October, 5PM]

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SYNOPSIS

A new tropical cyclone developed last night inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is now a named Tropical Depression - Julian (local name). TD Julian was located 435 km east southeast of Batanes with winds of 45 kph / 55 kph gusts (PAGASA). It is expected to move on a westward track across Luzon strait in the next couple of days. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 1 was raised in Batanes and Babuyan group of islands, Northern Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte. These areas may be affected by rainshowers (Batanes and Babuyan group of islands may experience moderate to heavy rains) and slightly stronger than normal but not damaging winds. For now, it is not expected to intensify into a typhoon.

Meanwhile, expect cloudy skies with scattered light to moderate (to at times heavy) rains in most parts of the country. Potential monsoonal (Habagat) surge may be expected over the weekend in Central Philippines.

FPH ASSETS AT RISK

BWF (Burgos) management and employees are recommended to monitor the development of this disturbance.

For more info, see localized forecast for areas with FPH assets below.

CURRENT AND FORECAST INFORMATION

Latest satellite image (Himawari/Japan) shows TD Julian with a circulation center located east southeast of Batanes.

PAGASA forecast track for TD Julian shows it will pass over Batanes-Babuyan area tomorrow morning and into the South China Sea this weekend. JMA (Japan) and JTWC (US) tracks are similar with that of PAGASA track, however, JTWC just released a tropical cyclone alert since available data does not justify issuance of a warning.

RAIN FORECAST MAPS

Wednesday (5 Oct): Southwest monsoon winds are bringing rain to most of Visayas, as well as southern Luzon and northern Mindanao.

Thursday (6 Oct): Isolated rainshowers in Luzon including NCR, and thunderstorms due to the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in most of Mindanao.

LOCALIZED FORECAST IN AREAS WITH FPH ASSETS

SITE/BU

Potential Effect

Heavy Rainfall Warning Advisory Level

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal

5-day Weather Outlook

24-hr TC Forecast

Track to hit site

Expected Rainfall & Wind/Gustiness;

Potential threats of flooding landslide;

Other potential hazards/impacts

Light: <2.5mm

Moderate: 2.5-7.5mm

Heavy(YELLOW): 7.5-15mm

Intense (ORANGE): 15-30mm

Torrential (RED): >30mm

[*]

#1:30-60 kph

#2:61-120 kph

#3:121-170 kph

#4:171-220 kph

#5:>220 kph

[**]

3-hourly forecast on wind, rainfall, temperature, relative humidity

[***]

6-hourly forecast on distance of eye from site, expected wind and rainfall

[****]

!!!Links not updated as of today,15 Sept

Head Office

No direct effect

--

[-] Metro Manila/ NCR

Pasig

Head Office

BWF

Potential rainshowers on Friday

--

[-] Ilocos Norte

Burgos

Burgos

PMHEPP

No direct effect

--

[-]Nueva Ecija

[-]Nueva Viscaya

Pantabangan

Pantabangan

FPIP

No direct effect

--

[-] Batangas

FPIP

FPIP

FirstGas

No direct effect

--

FirstGas

FirstGas

BGBU

No direct effect

--

[-] Albay

[-] Sorsogon

BacMan

BacMan

LGBU

No direct effect

--

[-] Leyte

Leyte

Leyte

NIGBU

No direct effect

--

[-] Southern Negros

Negros

Negros

MAGBU

No direct effect

--

[-] North Cotabato

[-] Davao

Mindanao

Mindanao

* Usually indicates current rainfall affecting an area and is expected to persist in the next 2-3 hours. To understand PAGASA’s Heavy Rainfall Warning, check our rainy season advisory #2 here.

** To know more about PAGASA’s TCWS (previously known as Public Storm Warning Signal) and how it works, click this link.

*** Updated every 6 hours. Information indicated here are based on weather forecast models and is not 100% perfect.For quick look of FPH assets, click here.

**** Information indicated here are based on weather forecast models and is not 100% perfect. The links will not always be updated specially if and when the TC will NOT directly hit the site/BU.

^ Based on latest forecast model, winds may be underestimated.

USEFUL LINKS

Read our previous Rainy Season Advisories:
Rainy Season Advisory #1: Here comes the rain again  
Rainy Season Advisory #2: Rhythm of the falling rain  
Rainy Season Advisory #3: Through the rain 

Read our first in a series on Preparedness:
Preparedness Advisory #1: Achieving a level of preparedness for disasters

Read our first in a series on La Nina:
La Niña Advisory #1: Fading El Niño, Brewing La Niña

ABOUT THIS ADVISORY

This Weather Advisory/Update is being provided by the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc.  (OML Center) in collaboration with Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, an Atmospheric Physicist from UP Diliman and team member of DOST Project NOAH. SMS updates are also provided during holidays and weekends.
The Oscar M. Lopez Center is a non-profit organization principled on climate science that mobilizes private sector support for research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.

To know more about the OML Center, visit our website at http://www.omlopezcenter.org/ or visit our office at the 36th floor, OCC, Ortigas.

Should you have suggestions and comments about the weather updates, please send an e-mail to Jane at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or you can accomplish our feedback form HERE.

Please do not “reply to all” as this e-mail was sent in ‘bcc’ to our mailing list with almost 370 recipients.

Information provided here is based on data from PAGASA and other sources such as JMA and JTWC, among others. JMA is the official weather agency of the northwest Pacific region. PAGASA is the official agency in PAR and main data source for this report.

This weather update is for the internal use of FPH and its subsidiaries only.

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