Rainfall variability linked to changes in poverty, food insecurity rates

A new science-policy brief (SPB) released by Oscar M. Lopez (OML) Center revealed that rainfall variability is contributing to poverty and food insecurity in the Philippines, particularly among agricultural households heavily dependent on climate sensitive livelihoods.

Titled “Do Rainfall Shocks Affect Poverty? Evidence from Philippine Household and Climate Data,” the SPB found that both below-average and above average rainfall influence poverty and food poverty outcomes.

Using the 2018 to 2023 data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s Family Income and Expenditure Survey and rainfall records from the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, the SPB examined more than 82,000 household observations across 20 provinces. Data from 2021 were excluded due to the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The findings show that periods of below-average rainfall may increase poverty incidence by approximately 3.9 to 6 percentage points (pp), with agricultural households experiencing an even greater increase of nearly 10 pp. Food poverty may also rise by around 2.2 pp during dry periods, especially among farming households.

Conversely, above-average rainfall was associated with lower poverty and food poverty rates, declining by 3.6 to 4.4 pp and 1.6 to 2.3 pp, respectively. These findings suggest that moderate increase in rainfall may support agricultural productivity in rainfed farming systems.

The brief identified agricultural households as the most vulnerable sector to rainfall variability primarily due to their dependence on farming and climate-sensitive sources of income. It also highlighted that climate change is intensifying rainfall variability in the Philippines, citing recent analyses from the State of the 2023 Philippine Climate and the 2024 Philippine Climate Change Assessment.

Five key actions are recommended: invest in water access by expanding irrigation infrastructure, small reservoirs and rainwater harvesting systems; support climate-smart agriculture; strengthen risk financing; expand climate monitoring systems and link information to response mechanisms; and strengthen institutional systems and inter-agency coordination.

Access and download the science-policy brief at https://bit. ly/OMLC-SPB3. To access previous SPBs, log on to the OML Center website: https:// bit.ly/OMLC-SPBs.